Mexico Green Ammonia Market Key Takeaways

• The green ammonia market in Mexico stood at around USD 27 million in 2025 and is anticipated to expand from USD 41 million in 2026 to USD 112 million by 2032.
• The industry is projected to witness steady growth at a CAGR of 18.23% over the forecast period.
• Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) held nearly 58% share of the technology segment in 2026.
• Fertilizer applications accounted for approximately 46% share of the market in 2026.
• The industry is moderately consolidated, with the top five leading players accounting for approximately 59% of the total market share.

Mexico Green Ammonia Market Size and Outlook

The Mexico's fertilizer sector remains heavily dependent on imported fossil-based ammonia, creating significant opportunities for domestically produced green ammonia as the country advances its energy transition and industrial decarbonization goals. Mexico imports nearly 80% of the ammonia it consumes, including approximately 3.7 million tonnes of nitrogen-based fertilizers in 2024, underscoring the need to strengthen local production capacity and improve supply chain resilience. Simultaneously, the country's abundant solar and wind resources, strategic geographic location, and expanding renewable energy investments are supporting the development of large-scale green hydrogen and green ammonia projects.

In addition, Mexico's NDC 3.0 commitment to limit net greenhouse gas emissions to 364–404 million tonnes of CO₂e by 2035 is encouraging investments in low-carbon ammonia production for fertilizer manufacturing, hydrogen transportation, and future clean fuel exports to North America and Asia. Supported by these structural drivers, the Mexico green ammonia market was valued at USD 27 million in 2025, is projected to reach USD 41 million in 2026, and is expected to attain USD 112 million by 2032, registering a CAGR of 18.23% during the forecast period.

Mexico Green Ammonia Market Key Indicators

• Mexico added approximately 2.1 GW of new solar photovoltaic capacity in 2024, reflecting continued expansion of the country's renewable electricity infrastructure. Growing solar generation increases the availability of low-carbon electricity required for electrolysis, supporting green hydrogen production and strengthening the long-term outlook for green ammonia manufacturing.
• Mexico's installed wind power capacity reached approximately 7.9 GW by the end of 2024, reflecting continued expansion of the country's renewable energy infrastructure. The growing availability of renewable electricity supports large-scale electrolysis for green hydrogen production, strengthening the long-term outlook for green ammonia manufacturing.
• Mexico's Ministry of Energy (SENER) projects the addition of 19,954 MW of new renewable electricity capacity by 2030 under the Power Sector Development Plan (PLADESE 2025–2039), with solar photovoltaic accounting for approximately 58.3% of the planned additions. The expansion of renewable electricity generation strengthens the availability of low-carbon power required for electrolysis, supporting large-scale green hydrogen and green ammonia production.
• SENER approved 20 private renewable energy generation projects worth approximately USD 4.75 billion in December 2025, representing an additional 3,320 MW of installed generation capacity. Accelerated investments in renewable energy infrastructure improve the long-term availability of clean electricity, strengthening the commercial viability of green ammonia production facilities across Mexico.

Mexico Green Ammonia Market Scope

Mexico Green Ammonia Market Growth Drivers

Rapid Expansion of Low-Cost Solar and Wind Generation Capacity

The competitiveness of green ammonia production depends primarily on the availability of abundant, low-cost renewable electricity to power water electrolysis. Mexico is steadily strengthening this foundation through significant investments in renewable energy infrastructure. According to the National Energy Control Center (CENACE) and the National Energy Commission (CNE), the country currently operates 8,131 MW of installed wind capacity. Complementing this, the government's Plan de Fortalecimiento y Expansión del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional 2025–2030 commits approximately USD 22.377 billion toward the development of 51 new electricity generation projects, including seven wind and nine solar power plants. The planned expansion of renewable generation capacity is expected to increase the availability of low-cost, low-carbon electricity, creating a stronger foundation for green hydrogen production and large-scale green ammonia manufacturing.

This expanding renewable energy ecosystem is already shaping investment decisions across Mexico's emerging hydrogen value chain. Developers such as Tango Solar and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners have selected Sonora and Sinaloa for large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia projects because of their exceptional solar and wind resources. As renewable energy projects move from planning to commercial operation, they are expected to provide the reliable electricity required for utility-scale electrolysis, accelerating green ammonia capacity additions while supporting industrial decarbonization and strengthening Mexico's position as a competitive supplier to domestic and international markets.

Recent Trends

Mexico's Green Ammonia Projects Advancing Toward Commercialization

Mexico's green ammonia sector is evolving from early-stage project announcements toward commercial development, with projects progressing through environmental approvals, strategic partnerships, and pre-construction activities. This transition reflects growing confidence in the country's renewable energy potential and its ability to support renewable ammonia solutions. A key milestone was achieved in September 2025, when Mexico's Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) granted the country's first environmental authorization (Manifestación de Impacto Ambiental) for Tango Solar Norte in Sinaloa, an estimated USD 1.17 billion green hydrogen project designed to produce approximately 41,485 tonnes of hydrogen annually through water electrolysis.

Project momentum is also strengthening through government collaboration. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), through its subsidiary Helax, signed a memorandum of understanding with Mexico's Secretaría de Marina and the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec authority to co-develop a renewable hydrogen and ammonia facility in Oaxaca. As more projects advance through regulatory approvals and strategic partnerships, green ammonia project developers are accelerating Mexico's transition toward commercial-scale production while strengthening the country's future export potential.

Mexico Green Ammonia Market Opportunities and Challenges

Regional Water Stress Leading to the Adoption of Seawater Desalination for Green Ammonia Production

Electrolysis-based green ammonia production requires a reliable supply of purified water, making water availability a critical consideration for renewable ammonia production technologies. However, several of Mexico's renewable-rich northern states, where major green ammonia projects are planned, experience high levels of water stress. According to the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, Sonora and Sinaloa rank among the country's most water-stressed regions. This is further reflected in data from Mexico's National Water Commission (CONAGUA), which reported that storage in the Río Mayo basin declined from 31.49% to just 0.8% within a year, highlighting increasing pressure on freshwater resources.

These constraints are encouraging developers to integrate seawater desalination into coastal green ammonia projects, reducing reliance on freshwater while ensuring a stable process-water supply for electrolysis. As many proposed facilities are already being developed near Mexico's Pacific and Gulf coastlines to leverage abundant renewable resources and export infrastructure, desalination-based water supply systems offer a technically viable and environmentally sustainable solution. This approach is expected to strengthen the long-term viability of clean ammonia production systems, facilitate regulatory approvals in water-stressed regions, and support the expansion of commercial-scale green ammonia production across Mexico.

Segmentation Insights

Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE) Holds a 58% Market Share, Driven by Commercial Maturity and Cost Advantages

Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE) holds the largest share of the Mexico green ammonia market because large-scale projects prioritize commercially proven, cost-effective, and low-risk technologies. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), alkaline electrolyzers are the most mature electrolyzer technologies, supported by more than a century of industrial deployment in the chlor-alkali industry. Unlike Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) systems, AWE does not rely on platinum-group or iridium catalysts, reducing exposure to supply chain constraints and material price volatility. These advantages are particularly important for Mexico, where utility-scale green ammonia projects in Sinaloa and Oaxaca require substantial upfront investment and long-term operational reliability.

The competitive position of AWE is further strengthened by Mexico's limited domestic manufacturing base for PEM and Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOEC) components, making these technologies comparatively more expensive to deploy and maintain. While PEM is well suited for applications requiring rapid response to variable renewable electricity and SOEC remains at an early stage of commercial deployment, AWE continues to offer the best balance of capital efficiency, technological maturity, and operational reliability, making it the preferred technology for large-scale green ammonia production across Mexico. Based on technology, the market has been segmented into:

• Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE)
• Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Electrolysis
• Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOEC)

Fertilizer Holds a 46% Market Share, Driven by Established Distribution Infrastructure and Import Substitution

Fertilizer's leading share of Mexico's green ammonia market is driven by a distinct structural advantage: it can be integrated directly into the country's established ammonia production, blending, and distribution network without requiring new downstream offtake infrastructure. According to Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the 2022 Agricultural Census recorded approximately 29.8 million hectares under agricultural use, supporting sustained demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers across the country. This established demand allows domestic green ammonia producers to serve an existing customer base immediately, avoiding the need to wait for dedicated export terminals, bunkering facilities, or industrial retrofits.

This immediate market readiness provides fertilizer with a clear commercial advantage over emerging applications such as hydrogen carrier, zero-carbon fuel, and energy storage, which remain dependent on the gradual development of specialized logistics and offtake infrastructure. Agricultural distributors, fertilizer blenders, and cooperatives already handle ammonia-derived nitrogen products at scale, allowing green ammonia to substitute directly for conventionally produced ammonia within the existing supply chain. As domestic production capacity expands, this well-established distribution ecosystem is expected to support faster commercialization and sustained leadership of the fertilizer segment throughout the forecast period. Based on application, the market is categorized into:

• Fertilizer
• Hydrogen Carrier
• Zero-Carbon Fuel
• Energy Storage
• Chemical Feedstock (Excluding Fertilizers)
• Others

Mexico Green Ammonia Market Competitive Analysis

The Mexico green ammonia market exhibits a moderately consolidated competitive landscape, with companies competing through renewable energy integration, electrolyzer technology, ammonia production expertise, strategic partnerships, and export-oriented projects. The top five players Mitsui & Co., Ltd., Gas y Petroquímica de Occidente, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (GPO), Yara International ASA, Grupo Fertiberia, S.L., and thyssenkrupp Uhde GmbH collectively account for an estimated 59% of the market.

Key Players of Green Ammonia in Mexico

• Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
• Gas y Petroquímica de Occidente, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (GPO)
• Yara International ASA
• Grupo Fertiberia, S.L.
• thyssenkrupp Uhde GmbH
• Topsoe A/S
• Siemens Energy AG
• Nel ASA
• John Cockerill SA
• Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX)
• Others

Mexico Green Ammonia Industry News and Recent Developments

August 2025: Siemens Energy and Techint Selected for FEED of Pacifico Mexinol Electrolysis Plant

Siemens Energy and Techint Engineering & Construction were selected to execute the front-end engineering design (FEED) for the 210 MW electrolysis facility at the USD 3.3 billion Pacifico Mexinol project in Sinaloa, Mexico. The project will produce green hydrogen for low-carbon methanol production and is expected to incorporate one of the largest electrolysis installations in the Americas.

Impact Analysis: The project strengthens Mexico's large-scale electrolysis engineering capabilities and expands the country's green hydrogen value chain. The deployment of utility-scale electrolysis infrastructure is expected to support future green ammonia developments by improving technology readiness, engineering expertise, and investor confidence in renewable hydrogen projects.

September 2025: PEMEX Announces USD 757 Million Investment to Expand Petrochemical Operations

Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced an investment of approximately USD 757 million to expand petrochemical operations across Veracruz, with plans to increase domestic ammonia and urea production by 2028. The investment includes upgrades to key petrochemical complexes aimed at strengthening Mexico's fertilizer production capacity and reducing dependence on imported ammonia.

Impact Analysis: The investment reinforces Mexico's domestic ammonia production infrastructure and strengthens the country's fertilizer value chain. Modernized production assets are expected to facilitate the future integration of low-carbon hydrogen into ammonia manufacturing, supporting the long-term commercialization and adoption of green ammonia technologies.